Statistics

Computation for Undergraduates in Statistics Program

Investigation of Blood Lead Levels in Children

Background: The USEPA's Lead Program needs guidance on how to direct limited resources to eliminate lead poisoning in children. Lead exposure in children has an adverse affect on cognitive development and behavior. Exposure can be classified as either acute or chronic. Acute lead poisoning is a large amount of lead intake in a short amount of time. Chronic lead poisoning is a small amount of lead intake over a long period of time and is more common among children. Even very low levels of lead intake, previously thought to be harmless, have recently been shown to cause damaging effects after prolonged exposure. Two student teams have worked on this problem. The first team - Josh Drukenbrod and Chad Harness - assembled multiple data bases from the USEPA, the Census Bureau, and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. These data bases will be available for this project. Steven Somers, Jessica Williams and Amanda Campbell investigated Estimated Blood Lead Level (EBLL) rates per 1000 children. They compared the 2003 California EBLL data to the 2006 California EBLL data to determine the integrity of the 2003 data. The 2003 data was found to be incorrect and was confirmed by the California Department of Public Health. The 2006 data was provided by the California Department of Public Health. It was evaluated and found be a function of environmental factors. The estimated number of children with lead poisoning may be significantly overestimated. This project will examine other databases in over 40 states.

Purpose: Our objective is to provide a more accurate data base than the one currently available for the CDC and to identify those factors associated with high EBLL levels.

1. Can this team produce a more accurate national estimate of the number of children with blood levels exceeding the Federal standard?
2. Can common environmental factors be determined among the states which identify possible factors that cause high blood lead levels in children?
3. What advice can be provided to the USEPA to reduce elevated blood lead levels in children?

Data Sources: The following databases are available:

1. The USEPA's Toxic Release Inventory, as well as air and water quality data
2. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)
3. The Childhood Blood Lead Surveillance Program (CBLS) from the CDC
4. Census data and corrected EBLL data base from the California Department of Public Health

Client: Dr. Barry Nussbaum, Chief Statistician, USEPA